The $11 billion bond to overhaul California's water system that will go before voters in November is in big trouble, according to a poll released Thursday.

The survey, paid for by opponents of the bond measure and conducted by veteran San Francisco pollster Ben Tulchin, found that 55 percent of registered voters sampled would vote against the bond if the election where held today, while 34 percent said they would vote in favor.

Tulchin said support for the bond is "beyond low."

"No bond measure has ever passed that has started with a majority 'no' against it, based on the research we have done," Tulchin said, adding that respondents expressed concern about the state budget. "It shows you this thing is in serious trouble."  The bond, approved by the Legislature after an all-night session in November, would pay for restoration efforts in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and myriad other water and water-related projects statewide; $3 billion of the money would go toward construction of dams or other water storage projects.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and other leaders at the Capitol argue that the bond is critical to the future of the state's water supply and hail its passage in the Legislature as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise bleak session. Leaders of the campaign to pass the bond said that they do not trust the poll numbers and that their internal polling shows a different outcome.  "Our polling shows we have a close race at the present time, that voters understand our state faces major water challenges, and that voters will support the bond once they hear the facts," said Jim Earp, director of the California Alliance for Jobs and co-chairman of the campaign to pass the bond. The group declined to share its polling data, however.

According to the Tulchin Research poll, opposition is strong. Thirty-two percent of respondents said they would definitely vote against the bond, while 12 percent said they would definitely vote yes. Overall, the opposition crosses all party lines and is shared almost equally in Northern and Southern California. Respondents were read the title and summary of the bond as it will appear on the ballot and were asked if they would vote yes or no.

Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, one of the bond's staunchest supporters, said he does not "put much stock in a poll eight or nine months before an election." "There is a long way to go between now and November," he said. "We are in the midst of resolving our budget crisis and by the time the campaign heats up I hope that Californians will feel better about the economy and a campaign will also serve to educate the people of California why investing in our water infrastructure is a job creator and vital for our future."

But Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis, who opposes the bond, said she was "amazed" by the poll results, given that respondents were read only the title and summary.

The title and summary "is a very positive statement, and yet people aren't convinced," she said. Wolk maintains that the bond will ultimately harm the delta and that people from the region were not involved enough in forming it.

The poll was conducted by a telephone survey of 600 likely November voters across the state and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Written by: Wyatt Buchanan at wbuchanan@sfchronicle.com.

Site: San Francisco Chronicle

Source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/02/19/BATV1C3PRC.DTL#ixzz0g8kLlGp5